A METHOD OF ROAD PAVEMENT CONDITION PROJECTION

The strategic planning for roads is important because of the long-term effects of routine decisions, and the high cost of road repair and construction. However, the amount of suitable information available is extremely limited. This paper describes the exploration of the long-range projection of road pavement condition using a technique that was expected to require only readily available data. No field or laboratory work was involved, all information was obtained from two data sources, the 1972 Australian roads survey (ARS), and the 1981 NAASRA data base (NDB). The method of analysis used (the Markov chain approach) involved the following ingredients: 1) definition of road condition states; 2) road set condition state vectors; 3) transition rates (from one condition state to another); 4) many assumptions; and 5) data manipulation. A full description of the procedure may be found in the Bureau of Transport Economics occasional paper no 64 (IRRD no 277757). The results of the work enabled a prediction to be made of the 1981 (NDB) result, starting from the 1972 (ARS) condition, with fairly good agreement; and then to go on from there to the projections for 1991. The work was undertaken to explore a method, and it is hoped that the results will encourage other researchers to develop the technique further for their own use (Author). The number of the covering record for the workshop is IRRD no 284059. (TRRL)

• Record URL:
  • http://arrbknowledge.com
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0869102362
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Pavement Management Systems Workshop, Albury, New South Wales, 19-22 August 1985.
• Corporate Authors:

  ARRB

  Melbourne, Victoria  Australia 
• Authors:
  • Symons, P
• Conference:
  • Australian Road Research Board Conference Proc
• Publication Date: 1985

Media Info

• Features: Tables;
• Pagination: p. 197-205

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Data collection; Evaluation; Forecasting; Markov chains; Pavement management systems; Pavements; Strategic planning
• Uncontrolled Terms: Data sources; Pavement conditions
• ITRD Terms: 8525: Conference; 9020: Evaluation (assessment); 3847: Maintenance; 9102: Method; 2955: Pavement; 143: Planning
• Subject Areas: Highways; Pavements;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00465082
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB
• ISBN: 0-86910-236-2
• Files: ITRD, TRIS, ATRI
• Created Date: Jan 31 1988 12:00AM