THE USEFULNESS OF PREDICTION SUCCESS TABLES FOR DISCRIMINATING AMONG RANDOM UTILITY TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS

The development of an empirical random utility travel demand model, like the development of most other statistically based models, typically includes testing and comparing several different functional specifications of the model to determine which specification best explains the available data. This paper is concerned with comparisons based on prediction success tables and indices. It is shown by example that prediction success tables and indices can lead to selection of the incorrect model when a correctly specified model is compared with an incorrectly specified one. This can happen even with data sets sufficiently large to make the effects of random sampling errors negligibly small. Accordingly, it is concluded that prediction success tables and indices should not be used for model selection. Alternative selection procedures that are both reliable and easy to use are described.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1985/1037/1037-005.pdf
• Summary URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=THE+USEFULNESS+OF+PREDICTION+SUCCESS+TABLES+FOR+DISCRIMINATING+AMONG+RANDOM+UTILITY+TRAVEL+DEMAND+MODELS&author=J.+Horowitz&publication_year=1985
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• Supplemental Notes:
  • Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting.
• Authors:
  • Horowitz, Joel L
• Publication Date: 1985

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 40-43
• Monograph Title: Transportation demand analysis and issues in travel behavior
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 1037
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Accuracy; Alternatives analysis; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Ratios; Specifications; Travel demand
• Uncontrolled Terms: Selecting
• Old TRIS Terms: Indexes, ratios
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I10: Economics and Administration;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00458270
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309039533
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Sep 30 1986 12:00AM