LONG RANGE FORECASTS OF TRANSPORTATION ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN NYS: 1985-2001

This paper summarizes the methods used by the New York State Department of Transportation to prepare long range baseline forecasts of travel and energy use in each of the subsectors of the transportation sector in New York. This analysis updates previously prepared forecasts reported in TAR41. A variety of techniques relating energy to the economy, fuel price, supply, vehicle utilization and efficiency are used to prepare forecasts to 2001, for auto, motorcycle/moped, truck, transit, intercity rail, air and vessel modes. Within each group, separate forecasts are made for each relevant segment (e.g. intercity rail: passenger, freight service). Additionally, several altenate auto subsector forecasts have also been prepared. These include a base forecast with a more optimistic projection of improvements in new car efficiency; these forecasts were examined under both a base projection of real gasoline price and a constant real gas price projection. Results of the base forecasts show that total transportation sector energy consumption is expected to increase 0.67% from 1013.7 TBTU's used in 1984 to 1020.6 TBTU's used in 2001 indicating small fluctuations, but relatively constant energy demand over the period, while total highway vehicle miles of travel (VMT) are expected to grow from 87.05 (billion) BVMT in 1984 to 116.3 BVMT by 2001, an increase of 33.6%. Specific changes in fuel type usage, growth in model travel and energy consumption are specifically addresssed in the text. Over all, the report concludes that both growth in travel and energy usage will be moderate, generally even, tied to the projection of improvement in the New York economy, and highly dependent on increases in the vehicle efficiency of personal cars. (Author)

• Corporate Authors:

  New York State Department of Transportation

  Planning Division, State Campus, Building 4
  Albany, NY  United States  12232
• Authors:
  • Erlbaum, N S
• Publication Date: 1985-7-30

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 70 p.
• Serial:
  • Transportation Analysis Report
  • Issue Number: 51
  • Publisher: New York State Department of Transportation

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air transportation; Automobiles; Economics; Energy consumption; Forecasting; Freight transportation; Marine transportation; Mopeds; Motorcycles; Passenger transportation; Public transit; Railroad transportation; Time duration; Transportation; Trucks; Vehicle miles of travel
• Uncontrolled Terms: Long term
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00450915
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: Rept No 51
• Files: TRIS, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Aug 27 2004 9:57PM