THE SCENARIO ANALYSIS PROCESS AND LONG-RANGE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
An 18-month study of a prototype application of a scenario planning methodology for public planning is documented. The scenario technique is intended to address concerns about long-range planning in the light of uncertainties about the future by considering the interaction of a few key variables. By assigning values to each of the variables and considering their interaction, a panel of policy makers generates several hypothetical scenarios of the future that provide a context for considering directions for future public policy. The key variables were oil supply, economic activity, and technological change. The scenario process is described and a summary is given of the substantive findings. Also the value of scenario analysis as an adjunct to the ongoing, conventional transportation planning process is assessed.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309037727
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Supplemental Notes:
- Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Energy Conservation and Transportation Demand.
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Authors:
- Mordecai, John M
- Publication Date: 1984
Media Info
- Media Type: Print
- Features: Figures; Tables;
- Pagination: pp 29-33
- Monograph Title: Methodologies for considering technical energy issues in urban transportation planning
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Serial:
- Transportation Research Record
- Issue Number: 988
- Publisher: Transportation Research Board
- ISSN: 0361-1981
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Analysis; Economic development; Energy resources; Forecasting; Long range planning; Supply; Technological innovations; Transportation planning
- Uncontrolled Terms: Long term
- Old TRIS Terms: Analytical method; Energy supply
- Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 00450307
- Record Type: Publication
- ISBN: 0309037727
- Report/Paper Numbers: HS-038 878
- Files: TRIS, TRB
- Created Date: Nov 30 1985 12:00AM