TRANSPORTATION ENERGY DEMAND FROM 1980 TO 2010: THE ANL-85N2 FORECAST

As part of ongoing work for the US Department of Energy (DOE), Argonne National Laboratory's Center for Transportation Research develops new and detailed forecasts of US transportation energy demand by mode and fuel type. The purpose of these forecasts, the latest of which is known as ANL-85N2, is to provide the planning detail to guide DOE's long range research and development program for transportation engines and fuel. The ANL-85N2 forecast is consistent with the overall economic, demographic, and price assumptions of the National Energy Policy Plan, yet differs by providing a finer level of detail and enhanced capability for sensitivity analysis within the transportation sector. The principle feature of ANL-85N2 is the steady growth in travel during the 1980 to 2010 period (increases ranging from 28% for domestic water-borne commerce to 61% for personal vehicles, 74% for commercial trucks, and 157% for rail freight). However, because of relatively modest technological improvements and modal shifts, total transportation energy use declines through 1990 and then rises at an increasing rate. The number of automobiles per household, and transportation energy consumption per capita decline through 2000, while transportation energy per dollar of gross national product, freight energy per ton-mile, and passenger energy per capita continue to fall (but at a declining rate) through 2010. The report concludes by comparing ANL-85N2 with other recently released forecasts and discussing certain underlying factors that apparently influence the various forecasts.

• Corporate Authors:

  Argonne National Laboratory

  9700 South Cass Avenue
  Argonne, IL  United States  60439
• Authors:
  • Millar, M
  • Vyas, A
• Publication Date: 1985-8

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 42 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Demand; Economics; Energy consumption; Forecasting; Transportation; Vehicle miles of travel
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00457169
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Energy Research Abstracts
• Report/Paper Numbers: ANL/CNSV-TM-169
• Contract Numbers: W-31-109-ENG-38
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 31 1987 12:00AM