DEVELOPMENT OF TIME-SERIES BASED TRANSIT PATRONAGE MODELS. VOLUME I-MODEL DEVELOPMENT FOR EVALUATING SERVICE LEVEL AND FARE STRATEGIES

This report describes the development and application of a methodology to identify and analyze the factors that influence changes in public transit ridership. The data used in model development and testing is from Portland, Oregon and covers the period 1971 through 1982. Models are developed at the system, sector, and route levels, and are used to assess the impacts of past changes in service level and fares, as well as to forecast future transit patronage. The statistical approach used was developed by Box and Jenkins for time-series data and is therefore more appropriate and powerful than the more traditional regression analysis. Of particular interest is the identification of the lag structures and functional forms that constitute the relationships between transit ridership, level of service, travel costs, and market size.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • This report contains an Executive Summary: Development of Time-Series Based Transit Patronage Models (UMTA-IA-11-0005-85-1) and Volume II: Development of Time-Series Based Transit Patronage Models, Volume II - Handbook for Applying Time Series Models to Transit Ridership Forecasts (UMTA-IA-11-0005-85-3). Set of 3 Volumes: PB85-195626 E99.
• Corporate Authors:

  University of Iowa, Iowa City

  College of Engineering
  Iowa City, IA  United States  52242-1527

  Urban Mass Transportation Administration

  Office of Technical Assistance & Safety, 400 7th Street, SW
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Kyte, M
  • Stoner, J
  • Cryer, J
• Publication Date: 1985-3

Media Info

• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 91 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Fares; Forecasting; Level of service; Mathematical models; Ridership; Statistical analysis; Telephone influence factors
• Identifier Terms: U.S. Department of Transportation; Urban Mass Transportation Act
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Geographic Terms: Portland (Oregon)
• Old TRIS Terms: Influence factors; Ost university research; Umta section 11
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00455141
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: UMTA-IA-11-0005-85-2
• Contract Numbers: IA-11-0005
• Files: TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: May 31 1988 12:00AM