Least-cost light-duty vehicle fleet decarbonization and the electric vehicle conundrum

This paper evaluates the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and financial performance of the U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet. It develops dynamic models for conventional (ICEV), hybrid (HEV), plugin hybrid (PHEV) and battery electric (BEV) LDVs in four vehicle classes (compact, sedan, SUV and pickup truck), estimating their component sizes, purchase prices, embodied emissions, fuel consumption, life cycle GHG emissions and total cost of ownership (TCO) as a function of vehicle miles travelled (VMT). These dynamic models are applied to the US LDV fleet with its wide range of VMT per vehicle, revealing that ICEVs have the lowest TCO at lower VMT, but HEVs and BEVs become more cost-effective as VMT increases. Financially optimal powertrain choice can then reduce fleet-wide GHG emissions by one-third with current technologies, without any subsidies or increased costs. Technological advances, particularly in battery costs and electricity emissions, are then powerful drivers of further fleet decarbonization.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2024.104473
• Record URL:
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920924004309
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/13619209
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Poursadegh, Farzad
  • Brear, Michael J
  • Leone, Thomas G
• Publication Date: 2024-12

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 104473
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
  • Volume: 137
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 1361-9209
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13619209

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Decarbonization; Electric vehicles; Financial analysis; Greenhouse gases; Operating costs; Vehicle fleets
• Subject Areas: Environment; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01937138
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Nov 18 2024 2:21PM