Incorporating Variability in KYTC Planning and Project Development

Transportation planning and design decisions are typically made using point estimates of traffic and safety measures. This report addresses the uncertainty of data used to make these decisions. It focuses on two data elements — project safety ratings and volume estimates from traffic counts. For safety ratings, the Kentucky Transportation Cabinet’s Strategic Highway Investment Formula for Tomorrow (SHIFT) crash history score is used as a case study. Confidence intervals are developed for the Cabinet’s new safety metric, which incorporates estimates of future crashes by severity as well as excess expected crashes above safety goals. For traffic counts, the report develops confidence intervals based on daily and monthly expansion factors across multiple permanent count recording stations. Results should help users of these data better understand the range of data the point estimates represent and the likelihood that projects based on these plans and designs will function as expected.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.13023/ktc.rr.2023.17
• Record URL:
  • https://uknowledge.uky.edu/ktc_researchreports/1766
• Record URL:
  • https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/76766
• Corporate Authors:

  University of Kentucky, Lexington

  Kentucky Transportation Center
  College of Engineering, 176 Raymond Building
  Lexington, KY  United States  40506-0281

  Kentucky Transportation Cabinet

  State Office Building, 200 Mero Street
  Frankfort, KY  United States  40622
• Authors:
  • Souleyrette, Reginald
  • Wang, Teng
  • Tanzen, Riana
  • Stromberg, Arnold
• Publication Date: 2023-4

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Edition: Research Report
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 63p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash data; Decision making; Highway design; Highway planning; Traffic counts
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Design; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01927501
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: KTC-23-17
• Contract Numbers: SPR 21-610
• Files: NTL, TRIS, STATEDOT
• Created Date: Aug 18 2024 6:13PM