O’Hare Airport Short-Term Ground Transportation Modal Demand Forecast Using Gaussian Processes

The principal objective of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal variation of ground transportation airport demand and provide demand forecast to inform planning capability and explore alternatives for investments to accommodate airport growth. Because of its good adaptability and strong generalization ability for dealing with high-dimensional input, small-sample, and nonlinear spatial data, Gaussian process (GP) regression is used to provide forecast estimates using data from transportation network company (TNC) trips and urban rail passengers at Chicago’s O’Hare International Airport. TNC airport trips differ significantly, with three times more distance, more than twice the travel time, and half of the share requests compared with nonairport trips. This highlights the need for separate demand models. Hourly analysis of the rail service indicates that this is likely heavily used by airport workers, whereas TNC services focus on travelers because of variations in the peak demand hours. Heteroscedastic GP regression is implemented because of differences in trip variance between night and day hours. Estimates are given for weekdays and weekend trips, and the 95% confidence intervals are calculated. The introduction of flight schedule information into the models shows marginal improvements in their performance. However, fitting a GP regression becomes computationally expensive with increased sample size and the introduction of spatial components. Transportation planners and policymakers can use the results and methods implemented in this study to optimize transportation assets and provide long-range simulations of the current and future conditions in the area.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1061/JTEPBS.TEENG-7918
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/24732907
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2023 American Society of Civil Engineers.
• Authors:
  • Zuniga-Garcia, Natalia
  • 0000-0002-1538-3599
  • Fadikar, Arindam
  • 0000-0001-7396-0350
  • Akinlana, Damola M
  • Auld, Joshua
• Publication Date: 2024-3

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Pagination: 04023143
• Serial:
  • Journal of Transportation Engineering, Part A: Systems
  • Volume: 150
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
  • ISSN: 2473-2907
  • EISSN: 2473-2893
  • Serial URL: http://ascelibrary.org/journal/jtepbs

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Airport ground transportation; Mode choice; Rail transit; Ridesourcing; Travel demand; Urban transit
• Identifier Terms: Chicago O'Hare International Airport
• Geographic Terms: Chicago (Illinois)
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Highways; Passenger Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Railroads;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01908073
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ASCE
• Created Date: Feb 14 2024 9:16AM