Probabilistic modeling and reasoning of conflict detection effectiveness by tracking systems towards safe urban air mobility operations

This study targets the scenario where centralized tracking systems provide tactical conflict detection for urban air mobility (UAM) flights. In this scenario, the interaction between airspace design and tracking system performances, and its impact on the effectiveness of conflict detection have not been addressed in the literature. To overcome this gap, this study aims at achieving probabilistic modeling and reasoning analysis, to provide references for stakeholders in the design of urban airspace and the deployment of flight tracking systems. A framework integrating multiple probabilistic methods is established. The authors formulate the event tree of pair-wise aircraft encounters with conflict detection provided by the tracking system. Then Monte Carlo simulation is performed by using an agent-based tool that the authors develop, to quantify the probability of event occurrences. Finally, Bayesian Networks models are built to infer the dependencies of conflict detection effectiveness on the airspace design and tracking system performances. The outcomes of this study demonstrate improvement in conflict detection that better tracking system performances can provide, and the impact of airspace design under different tracking configurations. The results can be used in the UAM traffic network planning, and systems standardization for UAM flight tracking, towards safe urban air traffic.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ress.2023.109908
• Record URL:
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0951832023008220
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/09518320
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Dai, Wei
  • 0000-0001-9001-8228
  • Quek, Zhi Hao
  • Low, Kin Huat
• Publication Date: 2024-4

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Pagination: 109908
• Serial:
  • Reliability Engineering & System Safety
  • Volume: 244
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0951-8320
  • Serial URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Air traffic; Detection and identification system applications; Probability; Tracking systems; Traffic conflicts; Urban areas
• Identifier Terms: Urban Air Mobility
• Subject Areas: Aviation; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01908069
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Feb 14 2024 9:16AM