Forecasting marine spill risk along the U.S. Pacific coasts

This study analyzes historical trends and forecasts of spill risks in coastal counties along the U.S. Pacific, including Alaska and Hawaii. The method calculates spill impact, which rises with size but diminishes with age and distance from the coast. Over the past two decades, spill risks in California and Washington have increased significantly. Coastal counties in Puget Sound and San Francisco Bay have seen the highest increases, surpassing 2000 levels by 79 % and 39 %, respectively. Alaska experienced a moderate rise, while Oregon and Hawaii had smaller but noteworthy increases. Ocean currents may reduce risk by 38 % on average. Most counties are expected to experience increasing spill risks, particularly in Southern California and Southwest Washington, which could see nearly a 50 % increase by 2033 compared to present levels. These findings can help coastal zone monitoring and inform policies for protecting coastal regions, regulating marine transportation and reducing spill vulnerability.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.marpolbul.2023.115826
• Record URL:
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0025326X23012614
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/0025326
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2024 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Fernández-Macho, Javier
• Publication Date: 2024-1

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 115826
• Serial:
  • Marine Pollution Bulletin
  • Volume: 198
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0025-326
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/0025326X

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Coastal zone management; Forecasting; Hazard mitigation; Marine transportation; Oil spills; Risk assessment
• Geographic Terms: Pacific Coast (United States)
• Subject Areas: Environment; Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Security and Emergencies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01911520
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 11 2024 3:56PM