The impact of working from home on travel demand: a methodology and preliminary estimates from Victoria

Working from home behaviours established during the Covid-19 pandemic will likely endure at materially higher levels than transport demand forecasts have historically assumed. Applications of strategic transport models typically assume trip generation functions calibrated to historic household travel survey data will remain unchanged in the decades ahead. It will be several years before a new steady state of travel behaviour is established and models can be recalibrated and validated to observed data. In the meantime, informed assumptions and innovative methods are required to use strategic transport models to forecast demand that incorporates long term working from home impacts. Our preliminary central scenario assumes 29 per cent of current Victorian jobs are suited to long term working from home, and workers in those jobs will work an additional 1.8 days per week from home compared to before the pandemic began. Jobs suited to working from home are heavily concentrated in the CBD and inner-city areas, while the location of workers employed in those jobs are more dispersed across Greater Melbourne and regional areas. We apply a tailored method to integrate these parameters with employment projection inputs and the four-step modelling process used in the Department of Transport’s Victorian Integrated Transport Model (VITM). As well as reducing demand for work commute trips, the method redistributes demand for some trips made during the workday – previously assumed to made from workplaces – to occur from home locations. Preliminary estimates reflect an 11 per cent reduction in daily work commutes in Greater Melbourne, representing two per cent of total daily weekday trips. Travel demand in inner areas in peak periods are disproportionately affected, with seven per cent fewer trips to the Melbourne CBD.

• Record URL:
  • https://australasiantransportresearchforum.org.au/papers/2021
• Authors:
  • Bryant, T
  • Batrouney, H
  • Eunson, J
  • Bayfield, D
• Conference:
  • Australasian Transport Research Forum (ATRF), 42nd, 2021, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
• Publication Date: 2021-12

Media Info

• Pagination: 12p
• Monograph Title: Australasian Transport Research Forum, 8-10 December 2021, Brisbane, Queensland

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Business districts; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Telecommuting; Travel; Travel demand; Urban areas; Urban transportation; Work trips
• Geographic Terms: Australia; Melbourne, Victoria
• ATRI Terms: Business district; Forecast; Journey to work; Modelling; Telecommuting; Travel demand; Urban transport
• ITRD Terms: 285: Demand (econ); 132: Forecast; 9127: Teleworking
• Subject Areas: I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01892380
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: ARRB Group Limited
• Files: ITRD, ATRI
• Created Date: Sep 6 2023 2:04PM