Risk exposure factors influencing the frequency of road crashes during the COVID-19 pandemic in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. A negative binomial spatial regression model

The article aims to investigate the influence of risk exposure factors on the frequency of road crashes from January to August 2020 in Ciudad Juarez, Mexico. It is a longitudinal study with four data sets: road crashes, population and housing census, location of economic activities, and road network information. Specifically, this study investigates the relationship between exposure factors – demographics, main roads and land use – and road crashes. A mixed method analysis was employed, (1) spatial analysis using GIS techniques; and (2) a negative binomial spatial regression model. The results showed a strong spatial dependence (0.274; 𝘱-value 0.00) of road crashes in the census tracts, and this effect was statistically significant (0.007) in the spatial regression model. In the model, a high probability (<0.05) of road crashes in the census tracts was found with the population aged 15 to 65 years, the length of main roads and the level of road coverage (Engel index), land uses with economic activities of an industrial and commercial character. The findings of this study successfully capture the social, economic, and urban conditions during the January–August 2020 period in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. This new knowledge could help create preventive plans and policies to address the frequency of road crashes.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1080/17457300.2023.2188469
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/17457300
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2023 Informa UK Limited, trading as Taylor & Francis Group. Abstract reprinted with permission of Taylor & Francis.
• Authors:
  • Hernández, Vladimir
  • Fuentes, César M
• Publication Date: 2023-7

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Pagination: pp 362-374
• Serial:
  • International Journal of Injury Control and Safety Promotion
  • Volume: 30
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: Taylor & Francis
  • ISSN: 1745-7300
  • EISSN: 1745-7319
  • Serial URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/loi/nics20

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: COVID-19; Crash causes; Crash exposure; Crash rates; Spatial analysis; Traffic crashes
• Geographic Terms: Ciudad Juarez (Mexico)
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Safety and Human Factors; Security and Emergencies; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01894427
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Sep 25 2023 2:46PM