Probabilistic Modeling of Landslide Hazards to Improve the Resilience of Transportation Infrastructure

Precipitation-induced landslides pose risks to humans through property damage, disruption of infrastructure, injury, and loss of life. These risks may be altered by climate change, as changes in vegetation cover and associated root cohesion might lead to a change in areas susceptible to landslides. The authors investigate this possibility through Monte Carlo simulations of slope stability in the Colorado Front Range, where climate change is expected to significantly change vegetation cover across the landscape. Climate change simulations predict an overall increase in the area susceptible to landslides and a shift to more instability on north-facing slopes. The study suggests that vegetation changes due to climate change could result in major shifts in the people and infrastructure susceptible to landslides. The authors also apply a landslide runout model to a large spatial scale to determine whether simplified assumptions using easily accessible data can provide realistic estimates of landslide stopping locations. The authors consider stopping rules using slope, curvature, and travel distance and find that a combination of a critical angle and a distance the landslide must maintain beneath the critical angle best predicts stopping locations in the study area.

• Record URL:
  https://www.ugpti.org/resources/reports/details.php?id=1127
• Record URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/68407
• Summary URL:
  https://rosap.ntl.bts.gov/view/dot/72895
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This document was sponsored by the U.S. Department of Transportation, University Transportation Centers Program.
• Corporate Authors:

  Colorado State University, Fort Collins

  Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
  Fort Collins, CO  United States  80525

  Mountain-Plains Consortium

  North Dakota State University
  Fargo, ND  United States  58108

  Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology

  University Transportation Centers Program
  Department of Transportation
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Byron, Elizabeth
  • Nelson, Peter A
• Publication Date: 2023-7

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Edition: Final Report
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 70p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Climate change; Forecasting; Landslides; Monte Carlo method; Slope stability
• Geographic Terms: Colorado
• Subject Areas: Environment; Geotechnology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Security and Emergencies;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01889792
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: MPC-593, MPC-23-500
• Files: UTC, NTL, TRIS, ATRI, USDOT
• Created Date: Aug 9 2023 1:23PM