Technology advancement is driving electric vehicle adoption

Electric vehicle sales have been growing rapidly in the United States and around the world. This study explores the drivers of demand for electric vehicles, examining whether this trend is primarily a result of technology improvements or changes in consumer preferences for the technology over time. The authors conduct a discrete choice experiment of new vehicle consumers in the United States, weighted to be representative of the population. Results suggest that improved technology has been the stronger force. Estimates of consumer willingness to pay for vehicle attributes show that when consumers compare a gasoline vehicle to its battery electric vehicle (BEV) counterpart, the improved operating cost, acceleration, and fast-charging capabilities of today’s BEVs mostly or entirely compensate for their perceived disadvantages, particularly for longer-range BEVs. Moreover, forecasted improvements of BEV range and price suggest that consumer valuation of many BEVs is expected to equal or exceed their gasoline counterparts by 2030. A suggestive market-wide simulation extrapolation indicates that if every gasoline vehicle had a BEV option in 2030, the majority of new car and near-majority of new sport-utility vehicle choice shares could be electric in that year due to projected technology improvements alone.

• Record URL:
  http://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2219396120
• Record URL:
  https://www.pnas.org/doi/abs/10.1073/pnas.2219396120
• Authors:
  • Forsythe, Connor R
  • Gillingham, Kenneth T
  • Michalek, Jeremy J
  • Whitefoot, Kate S
• Publication Date: 2023-5-30

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References;
• Pagination: e2219396120
• Serial:
  • Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
  • Volume: 120
  • Issue Number: 23
  • Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
  • EISSN: 1091-6490
  • Serial URL: http://www.pnas.org/

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Consumer preferences; Costs; Decarbonization; Electric vehicles; Market share; Sales; Technology
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01885515
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 22 2023 9:47AM