URBAN TRANSPORTATION IN THE YEAR 2000: IS THE PAST PROLOGUE?

Three major challenges that will confront transportation professionals in the year 2000 will be energy, demography and technology. The question is what effects will be evident in travel, including amounts, modal shifts, and the technology associated with change. Finance and the state of our economy will link these issues. With regard to energy, two facts emerge: the favored energy source has been a function of abundance and price, and shifts have taken several decades to occur. We look to breakthroughs in the source of energy from nuclear and solar power and from synthetic fuels, geothermal power, and photovoltaics. Through the year 2000, transportation will have to adapt to an uncertain petroleum future rather than relying on finding a petroleum substitute that can adapt to transportation. Thus energy consumption will have to be moved to a much higher place on the list of considerations when developing plans for transportation. We may have to lean toward solutions that are adaptable to substitute sources. Finally, the automobile's evolution to a smaller, less powerful, more fuel-efficient vehicle will require a reassessment of the design and safety standards for streets, signals, parking facilities, and major highways. Transportation will also be affected by two basic forces: the average population's growing older and the continuing migration to the "Sun Belt." Census changes will change the composition of Congress. Prospects for technology can be examined in three categories: vehicles, systems, and communications. Automobile changes will continue to be driven by considerations for economy and pollution control. Alternative power plants may provide some air: diesel, gas turbine and Stirling engines; stratified-charge engines; and electric and hybrid vehicles. Implementation and institutional acceptance will be the challenge in terms of systems, ranging from the DOT Urban Traffic Control System to the whole gamut of transportation system management. Communications systems will have a minor impact on demand for urban travel, though delivery movements may experience major effects from advances in electronic mail, data transmission, electronic fund transfer, and voice/video communications. The solution to transportation challenges will consist of a myriad of relatively modest actions, some of which will be forced on us and some of which will require careful planning. Recommendations are listed for making transportation more rational in the year 2000.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Published in Urban Transportation Perspectives and Prospects.
• Corporate Authors:

  Newcastle University, Australia

  Department of Community Programmes
  Newcastle, New South Wales 2308,   Australia 

  Eno Transportation Foundation

  P.O. Box 2055, Saugatuck Station
  Westport, CT  United States  06880-0055
• Authors:
  • Ferreri, M G
• Publication Date: 1982

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: p. 395-397
• Serial:
  • Publication of: Newcastle University, Australia
  • Publisher: Newcastle University, Australia

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automotive engineering; Communication systems; Demographics; Electric power plants; Energy resources; Innovation; Migration; Population forecasting; Recommendations; Safety; Standards; Technological innovations
• Uncontrolled Terms: Energy sources; Safety standards
• Old TRIS Terms: Future concepts
• Subject Areas: Energy; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Research; Safety and Human Factors; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00399725
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-037 987
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 31 1985 12:00AM