THE FUTURE OF THE AUTOMOBILE

The automobile has made a deep and permanent impact on virtually every aspect of our lives. It has also put a tremendous strain on the world's liquid energy resources. During the 1970s, governments around the world became aware of the resource casts of large-scale dependence on automobiles, as well as the environmental and safety costs. The directions of change from country to country have been consistent: greater government intervention in automobile design to speed the introduction of safer, cleaner, and more fuel-efficient vehicles; using taxation to influence the industry and consumers toward fuel-efficient cars; more emphasis on encouraging collective forms of urban transportation; and greater stress on efficient and intensive use of existing streets and highways rather than building new ones. The international environment of trade and competition has changed vastly--from one in which automobile manufacturing was centered in the United States and Western Europe to one in which Japanese imports are extremely competitive throughout the world. Third World countries are pressing for greater participation in making the cars used in their borders. The internationalization of the automobile market has strengthened regulators' ability to judge the feasibility of proposed standards and deadlines; the evolution of the major auto manufacturers and suppliers into multinational firms has weakened parochial orientations and may hasten innovative transfer among various firms; and the desire for greater efficiency and competitiveness is yielding collaborative production and shared assembly plants among automakers around the world. The "world car" concept--small, economical models, suited to all climates and conditions, that can be made with components produced at various points around the world and sold, with slight modifications, virtually everywhere--will blur the distinction between domestic and foreign production. It is speculated that between the late seventies and the late eighties, the number of competing automobile companies will drop from 30 to 10 worldwide. In the future, all-purpose cars may be supplanted by small "city cars", more convenient car rental and self-drive taxis may replace traditional auto ownership; vehicle sharing may take new forms. How well industrial societies succeed in salvaging automobility will depend on the combined ingenuity of government and industry and the driving public's response.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Pulished in Urban Transportation Perspectives and Prospects.
• Corporate Authors:

  Newcastle University, Australia

  Department of Community Programmes
  Newcastle, New South Wales 2308,   Australia 

  Eno Transportation Foundation

  P.O. Box 2055, Saugatuck Station
  Westport, CT  United States  06880-0055
• Authors:
  • Orski, C K
  • Altshuler, A
  • Roos, D
• Publication Date: 1982

Media Info

• Pagination: p. 383-388
• Serial:
  • Publication of: Newcastle University, Australia
  • Publisher: Newcastle University, Australia

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Competition; Costs; Developing countries; Economic efficiency; Energy resources; Equipment; Forecasting; Regulation; Safety; Technology; Technology transfer
• Uncontrolled Terms: Efficiency
• Geographic Terms: Japan; Western Europe
• Old TRIS Terms: Government intervention; Multinationals; World car
• Subject Areas: Economics; Education and Training; Energy; Finance; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00399724
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-037 987
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 31 1985 12:00AM