ACCIDENT "MIGRATION"--OR A FLIGHT OF FANCY?

The application of risk compensation theory to the field of road safety has brought about the currently controversial hypothesis of accident "migration". The upshot of this hypothesis is the suggestion that the successful treatment of an accident blackspot can lead to a rise in accidents at neighbouring sites. Recent research has indicated that accident "migration" could be responsible for a 10 percent increase in accidents at sites neighbouring blackspots. This paper suggests, on the basis of observed Lothian region data and theory, that accident "migration" can be explained as being the inevitable complement to (or corollary of) the regression-to-mean effect which is now generally accepted to occur at blackspots. It is shown that for those sites which cannot be described as accident blackspots, a regression-to-mean effect of the opposite hand to that observed at blackspots can be expected.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00410683
• Corporate Authors:

  Printerhall Limited

  29 Newmart Street
  London W1P 3PE,   England 
• Authors:
  • McGuigan, DRD
• Publication Date: 1985-4

Media Info

• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 229-233
• Serial:
  • Traffic Engineering & Control
  • Volume: 26
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: Hemming Group, Limited
  • ISSN: 0041-0683
  • Serial URL: http://www.tecmagazine.com/

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crashes; Hazards; High risk locations; Hypothesis testing; Improvements; Risk assessment
• Uncontrolled Terms: Accident migration; Hypothesis
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00399107
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-038 817
• Files: HSL, TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Sep 30 1985 12:00AM