FORECASTING HIGHWAY CASUALTIES: THE BRITISH ROAD SAFETY ACT AND A SENSE OF DEJA VU

This paper reexamines the effect of the introduction of the British Road Safety Act of 1967. We construct a dynamic model relating monthly road casualties to road traffic, rainfall, and alcohol consumption, standardizing for the seasonality in the data. An intervention variable captures the effect of the Road Safety Act. The findings confirm Ross's earlier conclusion that the Road Safety Act significantly reduces casualties. However, we find that the Road Safety Act only accounts for 2.7 percent of the variance in road casualties, while miles-driven and rainfall account for 48.8 percent, and alcohol consumption explains 4.2 percent. Our model forecasts accurately for 24 months beyond December, 1972, the last month used for estimation.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00472352
• Corporate Authors:

  Pergamon Press, Incorporated

  Headington Hill Hall
  Oxford OX30BW,    
• Authors:
  • Phillips, L
  • Ray, S
  • Votey Jr, H L
• Publication Date: 1984

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 101-114
• Serial:
  • Journal of Criminal Justice
  • Volume: 12
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Elsevier Science
  • ISSN: 0047-2352

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Alcoholic beverages; Forecasting; Highway safety; Laws; Mathematical models; Rainfall; Safety; Seasons; Traffic; Traffic crashes; Traffic safety
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models; Seasonal variations
• Subject Areas: Highways; Law; Operations and Traffic Management; Safety and Human Factors; I81: Accident Statistics;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00395969
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-038 174
• Files: HSL, TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Jul 31 1985 12:00AM