PREDICTING TRAVEL VOLUMES FOR HIGH-OCCUPANCY-VEHICLE STRATEGIES: A QUICK-RESPONSE APPROACH (DISCUSSION AND CLOSURE)

The development of a set of demand and supply models that predict peak-hour travel volumes for high-occupancy-vehicle (HOV) strategies on freeways is described. The demand models were estimated by using a consistent series of before-and-after empirical data from a number of actual HOV facilities located across the United States. Supply models were developed on the basis of speed-volume relationships that estimate changes in running speeds and travel times on the general-purpose lanes for different volume levels and capacity configurations. These models have been incorporated into a set of easy-to-use worksheets to predict equilibrium travel flows of vehicles on the general-purpose freeway lanes and of carpools and buses on the HOV lane or lanes. The models forecast the net change in volume due to mode shift, time of day, trip generation, and route diversion behavior. Consequently, the models provide more information on anticipated travel impacts than can be obtained by using mode-choice models alone. Because the forecasting procedure is designed to provide quick-response results, data requirements are minimal and these data should be readily available to most planning agencies. The accuracy of the forecasting procedure should be interpreted as sketchplanning-level responses that, if conditions warranted, would be subjected to additional and possibly more refined analyses. However, test applications of the prediction procedures described yielded favorable results. Using only data collected before HOV facilities were established, average errors across the HOV sites were less than 4 percent for the nonpriority automobile and HOV bus modes and less than 14 percent for the priority automobile and carpool mode.

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1984/976/976-007.pdf
• Record URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=PREDICTING+TRAVEL+VOLUMES+FOR+HIGH-OCCUPANCY-VEHICLE+STRATEGIES%3A+A+QUICK-RESPONSE+APPROACH+(DISCUSSION+AND+CLOSURE)&author=T.+Parody&publication_year=1984
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309037581
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

  500 Fifth Street, NW
  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Parody, Thomas E
• Discussers:
  • Pendleton, Olga J
• Publication Date: 1984

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 49-60
• Monograph Title: TRAVEL MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND OPERATIONS RESEARCH METHODS
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 976
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Buses; Carpools; Forecasting; Freeways; High occupancy vehicles; Mathematical models; Sketch planning; Traffic flow; Traffic restraint
• Old TRIS Terms: Sketch planning techniques
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00395402
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309037581
• Files: TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: May 31 1985 12:00AM