TESTING DISAGGREGATE TRAVEL DEMAND MODELS BY COMPARING PREDICTED AND OBSERVED MARKET SHARES
An intuitively appealing and popular method for testing a disaggregate choice model of travel demand, such as a logit model, consists of comparing the model's predictions of the market shares of travel alternatives in population groups with observations of these shares. Excessively large differences between the predicted and observed shares indicate that the model being tested is incorrect. In current practice, the decision whether differences between predictions and observations are large is made judgmentally, thereby raising the possibility that a correct or approximately correct model will be rejected because of the effects of random sampling errors. A statistical test is described that enables one to distinguish between the effects of random sampling errors and those of true model errors when predicted and observed market shares are compared. Five easily programmable steps for implementing the test are given, and commercially available software that can help with the computations is identified. A numerical example of the application of the test is presented, and the role of the test in practical model development is discussed
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Supplemental Notes:
- Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Passenger Travel Demand Forecasting. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved
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Corporate Authors:
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Authors:
- Horowitz, Joel L
- Publication Date: 1984
Media Info
- Media Type: Print
- Features: References; Tables;
- Pagination: pp 1-7
- Monograph Title: TRAVEL MODEL DEVELOPMENT AND OPERATIONS RESEARCH METHODS
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Serial:
- Transportation Research Record
- Issue Number: 976
- Publisher: Transportation Research Board
- ISSN: 0361-1981
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Disaggregate analysis; Logits; Mathematical models; Modal split; Sampling; Statistical analysis; Travel demand; Validation
- Old TRIS Terms: Disaggregate models
- Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 00395396
- Record Type: Publication
- ISBN: 0309037581
- Files: TRIS, TRB
- Created Date: May 31 1985 12:00AM