Travel decision making under uncertainty and road traffic behavior: the multifold role of ambiguity attitude
To aggregate commuters’ mode choices to traffic behavior in the presence of travel time uncertainty, we develop a dynamic traffic simulation in terms of an agent-based model, which consists of two sub-models, the mode choice model and the traffic flow simulation model. The modeling framework accommodates the interplay between the two models and their co-evolution over time. We embed an extended list of empirical parameters including ambiguity/risk attitudes and heterogeneity , and time-money trade-offs within a rank-dependent and source-dependent utility framework to imitate commuters’ daily mode choice behaviors. The improved behavioral realism at the micro-level results in an improved understanding of traffic flow in terms of modal split and average speed at equilibrium, compared to a conventional model which assumes risk neutrality and ambiguity neutrality. A novel finding is that ambiguity seeking, a typical behavior in the loss domain but largely ignored in the transport literature, acts as an important driver that shifts commuters from cars to public transport.
- Record URL:
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Corporate Authors:
University of Sydney. Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies
Sydney, New South Wales -
Authors:
- Zeng, J
- Li, Z
- Hensher, D A
- Publication Date: 2023-4
Media Info
- Pagination: 23p
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Serial:
- Issue Number: ITLS-WP-23-08
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Attitudes; Automobiles; Commuters; Decision making; Mathematical models; Mode choice; Public transit; Time; Traffic flow; Travel; Travel time; Work trips
- Geographic Terms: Australia
- ATRI Terms: Attitude; Car; Decision process; Journey to work; Modal choice; Modelling; Public transport; Traffic flow; Travel time
- ITRD Terms: 2267: Attitude (psychol); 1243: Car; 2248: Decision process; 744: Public transport
- Subject Areas: Passenger Transportation; Public Transportation; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01881933
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: ARRB Group Limited
- Files: ITRD, ATRI
- Created Date: May 9 2023 3:58PM