Travel decision making under uncertainty and road traffic behavior: the multifold role of ambiguity attitude

To aggregate commuters’ mode choices to traffic behavior in the presence of travel time uncertainty, we develop a dynamic traffic simulation in terms of an agent-based model, which consists of two sub-models, the mode choice model and the traffic flow simulation model. The modeling framework accommodates the interplay between the two models and their co-evolution over time. We embed an extended list of empirical parameters including ambiguity/risk attitudes and heterogeneity , and time-money trade-offs within a rank-dependent and source-dependent utility framework to imitate commuters’ daily mode choice behaviors. The improved behavioral realism at the micro-level results in an improved understanding of traffic flow in terms of modal split and average speed at equilibrium, compared to a conventional model which assumes risk neutrality and ambiguity neutrality. A novel finding is that ambiguity seeking, a typical behavior in the loss domain but largely ignored in the transport literature, acts as an important driver that shifts commuters from cars to public transport.

  • Record URL:
  • Corporate Authors:

    University of Sydney. Institute of Transport and Logistics Studies

    Sydney, New South Wales   
  • Authors:
    • Zeng, J
    • Li, Z
    • Hensher, D A
  • Publication Date: 2023-4

Media Info

  • Pagination: 23p
  • Serial:
    • Issue Number: ITLS-WP-23-08

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01881933
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: ARRB Group Limited
  • Files: ITRD, ATRI
  • Created Date: May 9 2023 3:58PM