PREDICTING THE NEXT GREAT EARTHQUAKE IN CALIFORNIA

Earthquake prediction is at the cutting edge of basic science. Substantial research programs are under way in China, Japan and the U.S.S.R. In the U.S., meanwhile, some $17 million is being spent each year on prediction and another $43 million on a research program including work on earthquake-hazard assessment, the engineering of buildings to resist earthquakes and studies of the fundamental nature of earthquakes. Progress on short-term prediction has been slower than workers hoped it would be a decade ago, when early successes were reported by both Soviet and American researchers. On the other hand, progress in long-term prediction and in the understanding of how earthquakes occur has been substantial. Now more than ever the aim is to learn to interpret the signals of strain accumulating in the earth within the framework of fundamental understanding of the earthquake process. This article reviews progress to date.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00368733
• Corporate Authors:

  Scientific American Incorporated

  415 Madison Avenue
  New York, NY  United States  10017
• Authors:
  • Wesson, R L
  • Wallace, R E
• Publication Date: 1985-2

Media Info

• Features: Figures;
• Pagination: p. 35-43
• Serial:
  • Scientific American
  • Volume: 252
  • Issue Number: 2
  • Publisher: Scientific American Incorporated
  • ISSN: 0036-8733

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Earthquake resistant design; Earthquake resistant structures; Earthquakes; Forecasting; Mechanical strain; Rock mechanics; State of the art studies; Time duration
• Uncontrolled Terms: Long term; Short term
• Old TRIS Terms: Strains
• Subject Areas: Geotechnology; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; I43: Rock Mechanics;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00393929
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: May 31 1985 12:00AM