State of the BART: Analyzing the Determinants of Bay Area Rapid Transit Use in the 2010s

Peaking on public transit—the concentration of ridership in peak times and directions into and out of central areas—has waxed in the U.S. over the past century, as public transit has lost more mode share at off-peak times, in off-peak directions, and among non-commute trips. A notable pre-pandemic manifestation of this chronic problem was on Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART), the San Francisco Bay Area’s regional heavy rail system. While BART staved off an absolute ridership decline longer than most American transit operators in the mid- and late-2010s, it did so almost entirely due to peak gains in riders offsetting off-peak losses. As a result, the system experienced worsening passenger crowding at some times and places, expanding underutilization of capacity at many others, and the prospect of enormous expenditures to accommodate rising transbay passenger demand. To examine the factors driving transit use in the 2010s, the authors model peak and off-peak BART trips as a function of station area and system characteristics. The authors uniquely use origin–destination pairs as the unit of analysis in order to separately measure influences at both ends of the trip. The authors find that transfers and travel time most influence peak and off-peak BART ridership and that station-area employment and time-competitiveness with driving particularly influence peak patronage. Over time in the authors' models, the associations between ridership and transit travel time weakened, while the associations between ridership and transfers, employment, and time-competitiveness with driving grew stronger. In sum, the authors find that the peaking problem plaguing public transit systems for decades worsened in the years leading up to the pandemic—on this one nationally significant U.S. transit system, at least—which poses potentially substantial financial challenges in the years ahead.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tra.2023.103663
• Record URL:
  • http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0965856423000836
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/09658564
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2023 Regents of the University of California. Published by Elsevier Ltd. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Wasserman, Jacob L
  • 0000-0003-2212-5798
  • Taylor, Brian D
  • 0000-0002-1037-2751
• Publication Date: 2023-6

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 103663
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice
  • Volume: 172
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0965-8564
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/09658564

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Off peak periods; Origin and destination; Peak periods; Public transit; Ridership
• Identifier Terms: Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART)
• Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01885088
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jun 19 2023 6:37PM