INVESTIGATION OF THE FEASIBILITY OF THE DELPHI TECHNIQUE FOR ESTIMATING RISK ANALYSIS PARAMETERS

An assessment was made of the feasibility of establishing by subjective estimates inputs for a previously developed risk analysis model. The model combines data on the likelihoods and costs of accidents that could arise in the transportation of hazardous materials. It thereby develops a measure of risk suitable for comparisons of possible alternate means of transportation. This can provide information of value to decision-making on transportation safety regulations and special permits.The present report covers the potential for this augmentation through organized surveys of experts following the procedures of the Delphi technique. The Delphi experiment that was conducted is described in detail and its results, concerned with alternate means of transporting hydrogen sulfide, are presented. A Bayes procedure for combining such results with any statistical accident data that may become available is also defined.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Prepared in cooperation with Department of Transportation, Washington, D.C. Office of Hazardous Materials.
• Corporate Authors:

  University of Southern California, Los Angeles

  Institute of Safety and Systems Management, University Park
  Los Angeles, CA  United States  90007

  Department of Transportation

  Office of Hazardous Materials, 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE
  Washington, DC  United States  20590
• Authors:
  • Philipson, L L
• Publication Date: 1974-4-30

Media Info

• Pagination: 177 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash risk forecasting; Crashes; Delphi method; Fires; Hazardous materials; Hazards; Mathematical models; Probability theory; Railroad safety; Risk analysis; Risk assessment; Safety; Statistical analysis; Tank cars
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Old TRIS Terms: Delphi technique; Tank car safety
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Railroads; Safety and Human Factors; Society;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00080647
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Technical Information Service
• Report/Paper Numbers: RAPO-74-501 Final Rpt.
• Contract Numbers: DOT-OS-20114/1
• Files: NTIS, TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Mar 6 1976 12:00AM