Simulating long-term emissions from private automated vehicles under climate policies

The future of privately owned, fully automated vehicles (AVs) is highly uncertain, especially the impacts to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The authors simulate the impacts of climate policy on AV uptake in Canada’s light-duty vehicle sector and the corresponding GHG emissions, including changes to efficiency, vehicle kilometre travelled (VKT), and zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) sales. The authors use a technology adoption model which includes consumer preferences and endogenous learning, while also representing automaker decisions. In scenarios where AVs become fully available for sale in 2025, consumer uptake ranges from 15% to 36% new market share by 2035--some of which displace ZEV sales. With or without strong climate policy, the availability of AVs leads to a small increase in GHG emissions, largely due to increased VKT per vehicle and among new user groups. However, enactment of a strong carbon price or ZEV sales mandate can still substantially reduce emissions in the AV scenarios.

• Record URL:
  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2023.103665
• Record URL:
  http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1361920923000627
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/13619209
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
• Authors:
  • Bhardwaj, Chandan
  • Axsen, Jonn
  • Crawford, Curran
• Publication Date: 2023-5

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Pagination: 103665
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment
  • Volume: 118
  • Issue Number: 0
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 1361-9209
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/13619209

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Autonomous vehicles; Environmental policy; Pollutants; Private passenger vehicles
• Geographic Terms: Canada
• Subject Areas: Environment; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01880293
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 21 2023 9:49AM