AN OVERVIEW OF RISK ANALYSIS METHODOLOGY

Three assessment methodologies for quantifying technological risk are the direct interrogation method, the empirical behavioral method, and the indirect behavioral method. The technique of successive subdivisions, based on the indirect behavioral method, is used to assess the distributions of technical experts. It involves having the assessor successively choose between a real world and hypothetical gamble. In a case study, the technique is applied to a case of new product development. Each subsystem performance measure distribution was assessed at three funding levels: the developer's normal budget, an increased or rich budget, and a reduced or lean budget. The judgments of the assessors were quantified in terms of probability distributions for use as inputs to a decision and control model. Training methods for analysts and assessors are given.

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Presented at the SAE Congress and Exposition, Detroit, 27 February-3 March 1978.
• Corporate Authors:

  Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE)

  400 Commonwealth Drive
  Warrendale, PA  United States  15096
• Authors:
  • Aswad, A A
• Publication Date: 1978

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: 10 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Decision making; Hazards; Mathematical models; Risk assessment; Statistical distributions; Technological innovations
• Subject Areas: Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00395160
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
• Report/Paper Numbers: SAE 780167, HS-025 319U
• Files: HSL, USDOT
• Created Date: Jun 30 1985 12:00AM