ANALYSIS OF TRANSIT FARE INCREASES: THE CASE OF THE SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN TRANSPORTATION AUTHORITY (SEMTA)

This paper details the results of a study of a 15 cent across the board increase in fares carried out in July of 1981, by the Southeastern Michigan Transportation Authority (SEMTA). Based on behavioral hypotheses, data from the same riders were gathered both before and after the fare increase (i.e. A panel); econometric methods tailored to these data were used. A limited dependent variable model ("Tobit") was developed to account statistically for the fact that some people stopped using transit entirely (i.e. Had zero trips after the fare increase). The results indicate that sensitivities to the fare increase among riders in this sample vary noticeably across types of service. In particular, transit trip-makers in the off-peak appear to be nearly twice as sensitive as those in the peak periods. It is clear that a wide variety of factors influence the use of bus transit. Even if transit service variables (e.g. Headways) are virtually constant during the period of study (as was true in the SEMTA system), many non-transit factors (e.g. Whether a person works, location of job, location of home) change continually for enough riders to make a difference. Conclusions drawn about riders' sensitivities to fare increases which do not account for changes in non-transit factors are likely to be erroneous. Because of the special nature of the data (from on-board surveys in the before case) and the several layers of statistical and theoretical concerns which arose, a number of issues were identified for further research. For the covering abstract of the conference see IRRD 276520. (Author/TRRL)

• Supplemental Notes:
  • Transportation Planning Research Colloquium 1983 held in Zandvoort on December 14-16, 1983. Volume II.
• Corporate Authors:

  Colloguium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk

  P.O. Box 45
  Delft,   Netherlands 
• Authors:
  • Damm-Luhr, D L
• Publication Date: 1984

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 121-141
• Serial:
  • Publication of: Colloquium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk
  • Publisher: Colloguium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Attitudes; Before and after studies; Buses; Conferences; Data collection; Econometric models; Elasticity (Economics); Fares; Level of service; Mathematical models; Off peak periods; Peak periods; Public transit; Ridership; Social factors; Surveys; Tariffs
• Identifier Terms: Southeastern Michigan Transportation Authority
• Uncontrolled Terms: Increase
• Geographic Terms: United States
• Old TRIS Terms: Off-peak
• ITRD Terms: 2267: Attitude (psychol); 9148: Before and after study; 1272: Bus; 8525: Conference; 9032: Increase; 653: Level of service; 6473: Mathematical model; 612: Peak hour; 744: Public transport; 241: Tariff; 8122: USA
• Subject Areas: Economics; Finance; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I71: Traffic Theory; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00389281
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Institute for Road Safety Research, SWOV
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 30 1984 12:00AM