PLANNING AND SCENARIOS

At the moment scenarios are being developed for a revision of the Netherlands traffic and transport structure plan, a long-term plan for the year 2000. In the paper the position and importance of scenarios in the planning process is discussed. Projections of the future give an insight into the possible long-term developments and help in making a choice between possible courses of policy. In the paper a number of problems are discussed which the forecaster meets in his task of delineating to the policy-maker the range of possibilities for the future. First, in so-called environmental scenarios, the social prospects are sketched. These environmental scenarios are made up of factors, influencing traffic and transport, whose development is uncertain. At a later state variants of policy will be added to these environmental scenarios, which result in traffic and transport scenarios. In this paper there is an emphasis on questions of method and substance in drawing up environmental scenarios. (TRRL)

  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Transportation Planning Research Colloquium 1983 held in Zandvoort on December 14-16, 1983. Volume II.
  • Corporate Authors:

    Colloguium Vervoersplanologisch Speurwerk

    P.O. Box 45
    Delft,   Netherlands 
  • Authors:
    • Abeelen, B
    • HOEKERT, M
    • PUYLAERT, H
  • Publication Date: 1984

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00389274
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Institute for Road Safety Research, SWOV
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Oct 30 1984 12:00AM