ACCIDENT SEVERITY PREDICTION FORMULA FOR RAIL-HIGHWAY CROSSINGS

The development of formulas to predict the severity of accidents at public rail-highway crossings is described. The formulas make use of the previously developed DOT Accident Prediction Formula, the U.S. DOT-AAR National Rail-Highway Crossing Inventory, and the FRA accident files. When these new formulas are used in the DOT Resource Allocation Procedure, information will be available to assist in making better decisions about where to install motorist-warning devices to further increase crossing safety for a given level of funding. Established statistical techniques were used to develop two formulas: one that estimates the number of fatal accidents per year at a crossing and one that estimates the number of injury accidents per year at a crossing. It was found that the factors in the inventory that significantly influence fatal accident severity, given that an accident occurred, were maximum timetable train speed, the number of through trains per day, the number of switch trains per day, and urban or rural location. For injury accident severity, given that an accident occurred, the significant factors were maximum timetable train speed, the number of tracks, and urban or rural location. The performance of these severity formulas is discussed and calculated results are presented. (Author)

• Record URL:
  • http://onlinepubs.trb.org/Onlinepubs/trr/1984/956/956-002.pdf
• Summary URL:
  • https://scholar.google.com/scholar_lookup?title=ACCIDENT+SEVERITY+PREDICTION+FORMULA+FOR+RAIL-HIGHWAY+CROSSINGS&author=J.+Hitz&publication_year=1984
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0309037018
• Supplemental Notes:
  • Publication of this paper sponsored by Committee on Railroad-Highway Grade Crossings. Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the Transportation Research Board of the National Academy of Sciences. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
• Corporate Authors:

  Transportation Research Board

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  Washington, DC  United States  20001
• Authors:
  • Hitz, John S
• Publication Date: 1984

Media Info

• Media Type: Print
• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: pp 5-11
• Monograph Title: TRAFFIC CONTROL DEVICES AND GRADE CROSSINGS
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Record
  • Issue Number: 956
  • Publisher: Transportation Research Board
  • ISSN: 0361-1981

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Crash rates; Crash severity; Electromagnetic frequencies; Estimating; Fatalities; Forecasting; Railroad grade crossings; Railroad trains; Speed
• Subject Areas: Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Railroads; Safety and Human Factors; Vehicles and Equipment; I82: Accidents and Transport Infrastructure;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00391015
• Record Type: Publication
• ISBN: 0309037018
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-038 140
• Files: HSL, TRIS, TRB
• Created Date: Dec 30 1985 12:00AM