A STOCHASTIC MODEL FOR THE TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION OF TRAFFIC DEMAND--THE PEAK HOUR PROBLEM

A mechanism by which commuters select departure time from home is suggested; based on this, a method is proposed for predicting the temporal distribution of traffic demand during the peak period. The traffic demand model is based on the assumption that commuters wish to arrive at work at a particular time without long delays in the traffic system. A commuter, therefore, assigns cost to delays as well as to early and late arrivals at work. This model proposes an iterative procedure by which to obtain the distribution of a commuter's departure time from home, assuming that he tries to minimize total cost. Three illustrative examples of the method are provided, one of which shows the effect of flexing work hours.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/oclc/1767714
• Corporate Authors:

  Operations Research Society of America

  428 East Preston Street
  Baltimore, MD  United States  21202
• Authors:
  • Alfa, A S
  • Minh, D L
• Publication Date: 1979-11

Media Info

• Features: References;
• Pagination: p. 315-324
• Serial:
  • Transportation Science
  • Volume: 13
  • Issue Number: 4
  • Publisher: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS)
  • ISSN: 0041-1655
  • Serial URL: http://transci.journal.informs.org/

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Commuters; Costs; Departure time; Flexible hours; Mathematical models; Minimization; Peak periods; Physical distribution; Stochastic processes; Traffic delays; Travel demand
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Finance; Freight Transportation; Passenger Transportation; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00390973
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-028 683
• Files: HSL, USDOT
• Created Date: Dec 30 1984 12:00AM