ANNUAL CAR USE - SOME INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE

This report investigates the determinants of average car use using international data relating to sixteen countries over the period 1971-1979 inclusive. Two alternative econometric models of average car use were specified and empirical relationships between annual kilometres per car and several explanatory variables were derived. The level of gross domestic product was found to have a strong positive influence on car use, while the level of car ownership had a slightly stronger negative effect. Once interactions between economic growth and car ownership were taken into account, the net effect of economic growth on average car use was found to be negative. Increases in two other variables -real petrol prices and urbanisation levels - were found to reduce car use, but to a relatively smaller extent. On the assumption of moderate growth in gdp and real petrol prices and a continuation of present trends towards urbanisation, a reduction in average car use of fifteen per cent is predicted for the year 2000. When combined with car number forecasts, a 60% increase in total car traffic is predicted. (TRRL)

• Corporate Authors:

  National Institute for Phys Planning & Constr Res

  St Martin's House, Waterloo Road
  Dublin 4,   Ireland 
• Authors:
  • Feeney, B P
• Publication Date: 1984-6

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 28 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Automobile travel; Automobiles; Costs; Data analysis; Economic conditions; Economic growth; Economics; Forecasting; Fuels; Gasoline; Gross national product; International; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Motor vehicles; Ownership; Prices; Statistical analysis; Urban development; Urbanization; Vehicle miles of travel
• Uncontrolled Terms: Growth rate; Use
• ITRD Terms: 1243: Car; 224: Cost; 255: Economics; 132: Forecast; 3850: Fuel; 265: Growth rate; 9034: International; 6473: Mathematical model; 374: Urban development; 9084: Use; 292: Vehicle mile; 315: Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Economics; Energy; Finance; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Society; Vehicles and Equipment; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning; I96: Vehicle Operating Costs;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00391079
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: An Foras Forbartha Teoranta
• Report/Paper Numbers: RT280 Monograph
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Mar 29 1985 12:00AM