FORECAST OF PERSON CAR FUEL CONSUMPTION

The aim of this study is to predict the energy consumption of the person car park in Finland, depending on the economical development in the country. This is accomplished by calculations according to 4 different economical scenarios. The calculations innclude the predictions of car park, car mileages and fuel consumption. Statistics show that the average car fuel consumption per mileage seems to be decreasing distinctly. The new car makes and technical demenstration of the car industry have a tendency of decreasing fuel consumption. Even though the increasing car size due to safety and comfort aims is predicted, the decreasing trend in fuel consumption will continue. The quantitative trend estimate of the degree of this tendency is dependent for instance on the distribution of the Finnish car import. In this study it is assumed that the average fuel consumption shall decrease 2% a until 1990 and 1%/a afterwards. The predictions of the total car mileage and the car fuel consumption characteristics are leading to the conclusions that with a modest economical development (GNP grows 3%/a) the total fuel consumption of the person car park does not grow considerably and due to the increasing share of diesel engines the gasoline consumption begins to decrease. In all scenarios the probable growth in the total car fuel consumption remains distinctly lower than the corresponding growth in the car park or in the GNP. The share of the diesel engined cars is studied separtely. It can be affected by state measures like fuel taxes. When the differences in the fuel consumption between diesel and gasoline engines are dimishing with technical development, the car markets are becoming more sensitive to these measures. A long term policy for developing the diesel car park would be needed.

• Corporate Authors:

  Vattion Teknillinen Tutkimuskeskus

  Espoo,   Finland 
• Authors:
  • Kallberg, H
• Publication Date: 1983-11

Language

• Finnish

Media Info

• Pagination: 68 p.

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Average; Estimates; Fuel consumption; Trend (Statistics)
• Subject Areas: Energy; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment; I96: Vehicle Operating Costs;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00390224
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Energy Research Abstracts
• Report/Paper Numbers: VIT-TUK-236
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Nov 30 1984 12:00AM