CAR TRAFFIC FORECASTING - BACKSIGHTS, INSIGHTS AND FORESIGHTS
The paper seeks to develop a robust model as a basis for predicting year on year changes in car traffic flow, inputting those variables which, on examination, have appeared most susceptible to modelling cause and effect - namely real personal disposable income and fuel prices (not deflated for retail price index changes). The paper has also attempted to review the evolution of car traffic forecasting, a complex subject in which most of the research effort has gone into modelling and hence predicting car ownership. The author has endeavoured to extend this to the use of a car and hence total changes in car traffic levels nationally. Amongst the conclusions listed are the following: car-traffic forecasting can be undertaken from a sounder conceptual base using a causal as distinct from extrapolatory model; petrol deliveries and sales can give early indication of motorists' response to changing economic circumstances well ahead of published car traffic census data; a possible trend to smaller vehicles may now be evident following the second oil crisis of 1979. (TRRL)
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/0263788X
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Corporate Authors:
Kinslea Press Limited
Central Buildings, 24 Southwark Street, London Bridge
London, England -
Authors:
- DUFFELL, J R
- Publication Date: 1982-6
Media Info
- Features: Figures; References;
- Pagination: p. 132-139
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Serial:
- MUNICIPAL ENGINEER
- Volume: 109
- Issue Number: 6
- Publisher: Thomas Telford Limited
- ISSN: 0263-788X
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Costs; Economic growth; Energy resources; Equipment; Forecasting; Fuels; Income; Mathematical models; Motor vehicles; Ownership; Prices; Traffic; Traffic flow; Traffic forecasting; Traffic simulation; Vehicle miles of travel; Vehicles
- Uncontrolled Terms: Causes; Growth rate; Use
- Geographic Terms: United Kingdom
- ITRD Terms: 9003: Cause; 224: Cost; 132: Forecast; 3850: Fuel; 265: Growth rate; 6473: Mathematical model; 755: Traffic; 671: Traffic flow; 8119: United Kingdom; 9084: Use; 1255: Vehicle; 292: Vehicle mile; 315: Vehicle ownership
- Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Finance; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 00386610
- Record Type: Publication
- Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
- Files: ITRD, TRIS
- Created Date: Jul 30 1984 12:00AM