SYNTHETIC SAMPLES AS A BASIS FOR ENUMERATING DISAGGREGATE MODELS

Sample enumeration provides a convenient and flexible approach to the integration of discrete choice models, but difficulties can arise when forecasts are required for areas other than that in which the estimation data set has been collected, or for forecast populations very different from that in the base year. Several studies have tackled these problems by constructing "synthetic" propulations, drawing information from a variety of external sources. A short review of existing experience with these techniques is presented, followed by details of an extensive sensitivity analysis that has been carried out on the Zuidvleugel system of travel demand forecasting models. The results give some indication of the scope for the cheap and flexible transfer of such model systems between areas, as well as the possibility of extending sample enumeration techniques to address longer term forecasting issues. (Author/TRRL)

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0860501124
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was presented at Seminar N, Developing Countries, held at the PTRC Annual Summer Meeting, University of Sussex, England, 4-7 July, 1983.
• Corporate Authors:

  PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

  110 Strand
  London WC2,   England 
• Authors:
  • Gunn, H
  • Fisher, P
  • DALY, A J
  • Pol, H
• Conference:
  • Planning & Transport Res & Comp, Sum Ann Mtg, Proc
• Publication Date: 1983

Media Info

• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 191-203

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Conferences; Demand; Disaggregate analysis; Forecasting; Mathematical models; Population; Statistical sampling; Transportation; Travel; Travel demand
• Geographic Terms: Netherlands
• Old TRIS Terms: Disaggregate models
• ITRD Terms: 8525: Conference; 285: Demand (econ); 132: Forecast; 698: Journey; 6473: Mathematical model; 8078: Netherlands; 335: Population; 6553: Sample (stat); 1155: Transport
• Subject Areas: Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Transportation (General); I71: Traffic Theory; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00382859
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• ISBN: 0-86050-112-4
• Report/Paper Numbers: Volume P240
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: May 30 1984 12:00AM