AN EVALUATION OF TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT PREDICTIONS USING ROUTE CHOICE ANALYSIS AND ERROR DECOMPOSITION

A statistical model has been developed to decompose the overall estimation error in link loads predicted with the usual assignment procedures. This decomposition is derived by comparing load estimates from assignment models (all-or-nothing, equilibrium, stochastic multiple route) and levels of detail (fine, medium, coarse). The absolute and relative contribution of the potential error sources to the total error-sum-of squares has been estimated for the primary roads of the car network of Eindhoven (the Netherlands). Special attention is given to the bias in the load predictions. From the empirical findings it can be learned that assignment load outcomes are very sensitive to the assignment model type as well as of spatial detail, whereas the trip input (if unbiased) is less important. An explanation of some findings is given using a detailed analysis of route choice predictions. (Author/TRRL)

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0860501124
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was presented at Seminar Developing Countries, held at the PTRC Annual Summer Meeting, University of Warwick, England, 4-7 July, 1983.
• Corporate Authors:

  PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

  110 Strand
  London WC2,   England 
• Authors:
  • Bovy, P H L
  • Jansen, GRM
• Conference:
  • Planning & Transport Res & Comp, Sum Ann Mtg, Proc
• Publication Date: 1983

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 101-113

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Conferences; Errors; Forecasting; Itinerary; Mathematical models; Measurement; Route choice; Statistical bias; Statistics; Traffic assignment; Travel; Travel time; Trip length; Urban areas
• Uncontrolled Terms: Selection
• Geographic Terms: Netherlands
• ITRD Terms: 8525: Conference; 6440: Error; 132: Forecast; 699: Itinerary; 698: Journey; 697: Journey time; 6473: Mathematical model; 6136: Measurement; 8078: Netherlands; 9072: Selection; 6555: Statistics; 679: Traffic assignment; 313: Urban area
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; I71: Traffic Theory; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00382852
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• ISBN: 0-86050-112-4
• Report/Paper Numbers: Volume P240
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: May 30 1984 12:00AM