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FUTURE USE OF STAGE BUS SERVICES

The reason underlying the decline of stage bus services in the UK over the past 30 years seems to be well understood, and the likely future trends can be projected using a quantitative forecasting model. The model considers UK bus services at a very aggregate level, but it breaks the demand into specific user groups: work trips, children's travel, travel by the elderly, and all other travel, and separately for households with and without a private car. Forecasts depend very sensitively on the level of economic growth assumed, since this governs the two major factors underpinning public transport use - car ownership and the cost of operating the services. If the economy could recover its historic growth rates a further substantial decline in bus use seems inevitable under most realistic assumptions, but with the present economic outlook a lower growth rate seems likely to persist for some time, and in this case public transport use will become much more stable in the 1990's, and large increases in fuel prices may even encourage some resurgence. Many of the metropolitan counties have adopted policies of strongly restraining future rises in fares, in some cases to the extent of freezing fares in monetary terms. The effects of such policies on both patronage and subsidies are considered here, and although much of the current political attention is focussed on controlling fares, the question of balance between fares and service levels is also discussed. Lastly, it must be admitted that these predictions are based on knowledge which is largely restricted to the short-term effects of transport policies. The nature of our uncertainty about longer-term effects, and the possible size of them, is considered in terms of sensitivity testing of the prediction model. (Author/TRRL)

  • Availability:
  • Supplemental Notes:
    • Public Transport. Proceedings of Seminar M held at the PTRC 10th Summer Annual Meeting, University of Warwick, England.
  • Corporate Authors:

    PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

    110 Strand
    London WC2,   England 
  • Authors:
    • Bly, P H
    • Oldfield, R H
  • Conference:
  • Publication Date: 1982

Media Info

  • Features: Figures; References;
  • Pagination: p. 99-111

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 00381678
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
  • ISBN: 0-86050-111-6
  • Files: ITRD, TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 30 1984 12:00AM