POLICY ANALYSIS USING SAMPLE ENUMERATION - AN APPLICATION TO CAR OWNERSHIP FORECASTING

The paper describes applications of the sample enumeration procedure for transportation policy analysis. The procedure is illustrated by reference to models developed for the prediction of driving licence and car ownership. These models are based on data collected in the Netherlands in 1977. The development and form of the models is described briefly. Applications of the procedure to two specific scenarios is described in detail. These involve projection of the car ownership effects of a general economic decline, and the prediction of car ownership effects of a shift of tax from car ownership to petrol. The latter evaluation is extended by a projection of travel demand effects. The policy analyses illustrate clearly the effectiveness of the sample enumeration technique in application. Using this procedure policies can be specified and evaluated in a few hours, thus making the use of modelling realistic for rapid policy evaluations. (Author/TRRL) seminar see IRRD no 272766.

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/isbn/0860501132
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was presented during the proceedings of Seminar Q held at PTRC's 10th Annual Summer Meeting, Transportation Analysis and Models.
• Corporate Authors:

  PTRC Education and Research Services Limited

  110 Strand
  London WC2,   England 
• Authors:
  • DALY, A J
• Conference:
  • Planning & Transport Res & Comp, Sum Ann Mtg, Proc
• Publication Date: 1982

Media Info

• Features: References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 53-65

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Conferences; Demand; Driver licenses; Driver licensing; Economics; Forecasting; Fuels; Mathematical models; Motor vehicles; Ownership; Policy; Policy analysis; Questionnaires; Statistical sampling; Taxation; Taxes; Transportation; Travel; Travel demand
• Uncontrolled Terms: Models
• Geographic Terms: Netherlands
• ITRD Terms: 8525: Conference; 285: Demand (econ); 1550: Driving licence; 255: Economics; 132: Forecast; 3850: Fuel; 9147: Interview; 698: Journey; 6473: Mathematical model; 8078: Netherlands; 173: Policy; 6553: Sample (stat); 268: Tax; 1155: Transport; 315: Vehicle ownership
• Subject Areas: Economics; Energy; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Policy; Transportation (General); I71: Traffic Theory; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00381621
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• ISBN: 0-86050-113-2
• Report/Paper Numbers: REPORT
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Apr 30 1984 12:00AM