Faster, Cheaper, Rougher Scenario Planning Through VisionEval

Transportation investment decisions require consideration of uncontrolled events along with possible policy responses to achieve desired goals. Using models to support scenario planning is hampered by extensive data requirements and difficulty evaluating many different scenarios. This paper reports on a pilot application of VisionEval, an open-source scenario planning platform, to support policy-level discussions at the Virginia Department of Transportation based on scenarios for urban Virginia near Washington, D.C. VisionEval facilitated quantitative investigation of future scenarios by reducing data requirements, allowing effective representation of policy alternatives and variations in future conditions, and considering interacting effects. Exploration of VisionEval scenarios supports later implementation of detailed models by narrowing the set of scenarios to consider and reducing the need for expensive data preparation and model runs. In this pilot study, 27 scenarios were evaluated to assess impacts on vehicle miles traveled, energy use, and carbon-dioxide-equivalent emissions based on variations in development patterns, household size, aging in place, telecommuting habits, highway tax policy, vehicle electrification, and fuel sources for vehicles and electric power generation. The study suggested three strategies for reducing emissions: (1) household vehicle electrification (26% reduction), (2) telecommuting (20%), and (3) heavy truck electrification (6%). Other strategies had a lesser impact (e.g., conversion of one-fourth of power plant sources from natural gas to solar, electrification of transit vehicles, and large fuel tax increases affected emissions by less than 1%). The study also showed that population and employment forecast errors at the traffic analysis zone level had very little impact on emission estimates.

• Record URL:
  • https://annualmeeting.mytrb.org/OnlineProgram/Details/17200
• Supplemental Notes:
  • This paper was sponsored by TRB committee AEP15 Standing Committee on Transportation Planning Analysis and Application.
• Authors:
  • Miller, John S
  • Flynn, Dan F B
  • Lohmar, Sarah
  • Englin, Eric
  • Raw, Jeremy
  • Adel, Sayed H
• Conference:
  • Transportation Research Board 101st Annual Meeting
  • Location: Washington DC, United States
  • Date: 2022-1-9 to 2022-1-13
• Date: 2022

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Features: Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 19p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Energy consumption; Forecasting; Pollutants; Vehicle miles of travel
• Identifier Terms: VisionEval
• Geographic Terms: Virginia
• Subject Areas: Highways; Planning and Forecasting;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01857918
• Record Type: Publication
• Report/Paper Numbers: TRBAM-22-00387
• Files: TRIS, TRB, ATRI
• Created Date: Sep 16 2022 4:31PM