A framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in arctic shipping
The melting of Arctic Sea ice has significantly facilitated Arctic shipping. However, such increased shipping has brought about higher maritime accidents in Arctic waters, especially for grounding and fire/explosion accidents. The paper presents a framework for quantitative analysis of the causation of grounding accidents in Arctic shipping by developing an accident map (AcciMap) - Bayesian network (BN) model. First, the potential risk factors for grounding accidents in the Arctic shipping were identified according to 322 maritime accident investigation reports (MAIRs) - 299 global MAIRs of grounding accidents (including 5 in Arctic waters) and 23 MAIRs (except grounding accidents) in Arctic waters and related literature. Consequently, an AcciMap model is developed for describing the evolution of grounding accident scenarios and reflecting the interdependency of the identified risk factors. Then, a probabilistic model is proposed to evaluate the probability and severity of the grounding accident for presenting a convincing justification for risk control options (RCOs). The framework is applied for the quantitative analysis of a cruise ship grounding accident in Arctic waters. Results demonstrate (1) improved understanding of cruise ship grounding risk factors related to government supervision, shipping company management, technical and operational management, unsafe incidents and behaviors, and environmental conditions; (2) quantitative analysis of the evolution of grounding accident and better identification of the critical risk factors; (3) determination of RCOs for risk management in Arctic shipping.
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- Record URL:
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/09518320
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Supplemental Notes:
- © 2022 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
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Authors:
- Fu, Shanshan
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0000-0003-2495-0572
- Yu, Yuerong
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0000-0001-8385-034X
- Chen, Jihong
- Xi, Yongtao
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0000-0002-4773-2298
- Zhang, Mingyang
- Publication Date: 2022-10
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Web
- Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 108706
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Serial:
- Reliability Engineering & System Safety
- Volume: 226
- Issue Number: 0
- Publisher: Elsevier
- ISSN: 0951-8320
- Serial URL: https://www.sciencedirect.com/journal/reliability-engineering-and-system-safety
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Bayes' theorem; Crash causes; Crash reports; Crash risk forecasting; Cruise ships; Groundings (Maritime crashes)
- Geographic Terms: Arctic Ocean
- Subject Areas: Marine Transportation; Safety and Human Factors; Vehicles and Equipment;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01855831
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Aug 24 2022 3:05PM