Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas
Detailed characterization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission across different settings can help design less disruptive interventions. We used real-time, privacy-enhanced mobility data in the New York City, NY and Seattle, WA metropolitan areas to build a detailed agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 infection to estimate the where, when, and magnitude of transmission events during the pandemic’s first wave. The authors estimate that only 18% of individuals produce most infections (80%), with about 10% of events that can be considered superspreading events (SSEs). Although mass gatherings present an important risk for SSEs, the authors estimate that the bulk of transmission occurred in smaller events in settings like workplaces, grocery stores, or food venues. The places most important for transmission change during the pandemic and are different across cities, signaling the large underlying behavioral component underneath them. The authors' modeling complements case studies and epidemiological data and indicates that real-time tracking of transmission events could help evaluate and define targeted mitigation policies.
- Record URL:
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Authors:
- Aleta, Alberto
- Martín-Corral, David
- Bakker , Michiel A
- Pastore y Piontti, Ana
- Ajelli, Marco
- Litvinova, Maria
- Chinazzi, Matteo
- Dean, Natalie E
- Halloran, M Elizabeth
- Longini Jr, Ira M
- Pentland, Alex
- Vespignani, Alessandro
- Moreno, Yamir
- Moro, Esteban
- Publication Date: 2022-6-28
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Figures; References;
- Pagination: e2112182119
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Serial:
- Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
- Volume: 119
- Issue Number: 26
- Publisher: National Academy of Sciences
- EISSN: 1091-6490
- Serial URL: http://www.pnas.org/
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: COVID-19; Epidemiology; Location; Metropolitan areas
- Geographic Terms: New York (New York); Seattle (Washington)
- Subject Areas: Planning and Forecasting; Safety and Human Factors; Transportation (General);
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01850908
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Jun 30 2022 1:38PM