Canada’s Path to 100% Zero-Emission Light-Duty Vehicle Sales: Regulatory Options and Greenhouse Gas Impacts
The authors evaluate the impacts on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions of possible regulatory approaches to achieving Canada’s 100% electric vehicle (EV) sales target for light-duty vehicles (LDVs) by 2035. The authors also assess how such approaches match Canada’s 2030 greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions target. The authors evaluate a baseline scenario reflecting current polices, and three alternatives: Alternative 1, in which 50% EV sales, including battery electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs), is reached by 2030; Alternative 2, in which 61% EV sales are reached by 2030; and Alternative 3, requiring the phasing out of PHEVs by 2035. Each alternative scenario achieves much better results than the baseline, but there are important differences in their annual CO₂ emission reductions, their cumulative emissions benefits, and how they match Canada’s 2030 target of a 40%-45% GHG reduction from 2005 levels. Alternative 3 could achieve a similar level of CO₂ reductions by 2036, a decade sooner than in the baseline scenario. None of the scenarios met the 2030 benchmark, but the scenario that comes closest to Canada’s 2050 target of zero GHG emissions is Alternative 3, which phases out PHEV sales completely by 2035. Alternative 2, capping PHEVs at 20% of EV sales, would result in an 88% reduction from 2021 to 2050. Additional strategies would help minimize CO₂ emissions from LDVs before the achievement of zero emissions. Faster adoption of EVs by 2030 with a cap on PHEV sales would decrease cumulative emissions. Also, to eliminate CO₂ emissions from gasoline vehicles in 2050, regulators could strategize for decarbonization of the electricity grid and accelerated turnover of the vehicle fleet.
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- Summary URL:
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Corporate Authors:
International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
1500 K Street NW, Suite 650
Washington, DC United States 20005 -
Authors:
- Sen, Arijit
- Bui, Anh
- Miller, Josh
- Publication Date: 2022-6
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 33p
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Serial:
- Working Paper
- Issue Number: 2022-22
- Publisher: International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Carbon dioxide; Greenhouse gases; Light vehicles; Regulation; Transportation policy; Zero emission vehicles
- Geographic Terms: Canada
- Subject Areas: Environment; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01856382
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Aug 29 2022 9:27AM