PROBABILITIES OF INJURY TO CAR OCCUPANTS IN ACCIDENTS WITH A PRACTICAL EXAMPLE

Methods are described, by the application of which the probabilities of injury to car occupants in collisions of all types may be estimated from data on injury accidents alone, without having to make counts of accidents in which no injury had occurred. To do this, however, the velocity changes have to be known for all vehicles in the sample, so that separate probabilities of injury may be calculated for a number of successive small intervals of velocity change covering the range of velocity change in the accident sample. Proceeding in this way, sets of curves of probability of injury at various levels of injury versus velocity change may be drawn, both for overall injury, and for injury to different regions of the body. A sample calculation at one value of velocity change is given. The method is applicable to single vehicle accidents as well as to collisions, provided that there are at least two car occupants. It is anticipated that the method will be particularly valuable when applied to estimate the effectiveness of seat belts, since it will then be possible to examine how the protection given changes with severity of accident, thus pointing to where improvements are desirable. Difficulties which arise when certain analyses of injury accidents are made without introducing probability theory are discussed.

• Corporate Authors:

  Institution of Mechanical Engineers

  1 Birdcage Walk
  London SW1H 9JJ,   England 
• Authors:
  • GRIME, G
• Conference:
  • Institution of Mechanical Engineers Proceedings
• Publication Date: 1982-12

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 325-332
• Serial:
  • Volume: 196

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobiles; Crash analysis; Crash injury research; Crash severity; Estimating; Injuries; Manual safety belts; Probability theory; Samples; Single vehicle crashes; Traffic crashes; Vehicle occupants; Velocity
• Old TRIS Terms: Interval sequence; Personal injury
• Subject Areas: Data and Information Technology; Highways; Passenger Transportation; Research; Safety and Human Factors;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00379439
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: National Highway Traffic Safety Administration
• Report/Paper Numbers: HS-034 250
• Files: HSL, TRIS, USDOT
• Created Date: Oct 30 1983 12:00AM