RIDERSHIP ESTIMATION FOR SHORT-RANGE TRANSIT PLANNING

The objective of this research was to develop a simple transit ridership estimation model system for short-range planning. The main feature of the model system is that it exploits knowledge of transit link volumes, which are obtained readily from on-off counts. Extensive use is made of default values for model parameters, taken directly from the transportation literature. The remaining parameters can be derived easily from generally available land-use and socioeconomic data. Expensive household surveys and time-consuming models generate trip-purpose specific transit trip tables, denoted as "trial" trip tables. These trip tables and observed transit link volumes are used in a linear programming model which serves as a correction mechanism. The gain in accuracy is achieved by using the ridership information contained in the transit link volumes. The corrected trip tables may be used in a pivot-point analysis to estimate changes in ridership and revenue. The results of a test application of the model system indicate that it can generate accurate ridership estimates when reliable transit link volumes are available from on-off counts, and when the trial transit trip tables as derived from the first three component models are reasonably accurate. (A)

• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/01912615
• Corporate Authors:

  Pergamon Press, Incorporated

  Headington Hill Hall
  Oxford OX30BW,    
• Authors:
  • Nickesen, A H
  • Meyburg, A H
  • Turnquist, M A
• Publication Date: 1983-6

Media Info

• Features: Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: p. 233-244
• Serial:
  • Transportation Research Part B: Methodological
  • Volume: 17B
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: Elsevier
  • ISSN: 0191-2615
  • Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/01912615

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Errors; Forecasting; Income; Land use; Mathematical models; Modal split; Physical distribution; Public transit; Ridership; Socioeconomic factors; Sociology; Traffic counts; Travel; Travel demand; Trip generation
• Uncontrolled Terms: Use
• ITRD Terms: 9016: Distribution (gen); 6440: Error; 132: Forecast; 663: Generated traffic; 256: Income; 698: Journey; 356: Land use; 6473: Mathematical model; 675: Modal split; 744: Public transport; 2253: Sociology; 689: Traffic count; 9084: Use
• Subject Areas: Economics; Freight Transportation; Highways; Operations and Traffic Management; Planning and Forecasting; Public Transportation; Society; I71: Traffic Theory; I72: Traffic and Transport Planning;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 00378897
• Record Type: Publication
• Source Agency: Transport Research Laboratory
• Files: ITRD, TRIS
• Created Date: Oct 30 1983 12:00AM