Heavy-duty zero-emission vehicles: Pace and opportunities for a rapid global transition

The authors summarize recent studies on the transition time needed for heavy duty vehicles (HDVs) to meet climate targets, the transition’s feasibility, possible approaches for adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) in different HDV segments, and strong policies that governments could adopt. An accelerated worldwide transition to ZEVs could reduce road transportation carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by 73% of 2020 levels by 2050. Transitions to heavy duty zero emission vehicles (HD ZEVs) represent about half of this potential for emissions reduction. Achieving this in the HDV sector would yield CO₂ emission reductions of 47.5 billion tonnes between 2020 and 2050. If the transportation sector is to fulfill its Paris Agreement emissions reduction obligations, the ZEV share of worldwide HDV sales must rise to 45% by 2030, and to nearly 100% by 2040. The necessary pace of transition varies across the various HDV segments, but greater ambition is required in segments such as buses, where zero-emission technology is now commercially available and cost-effective. A swift transition to zero-emission HDVs will bring immense health benefits worldwide. Among G20 countries, ensuring that new HDVs have ultra-low or zero emissions could prevent 3 million premature deaths worldwide through 2050, equivalent to 5 trillion United States dollars (USD) in health benefits. Projections of commercial availability and ownership costs show that 45% HD ZEV sales in 2030 and 100% sales in 2040 are realistic goals for Zero Emission Vehicles Transition Council (ZEVTC) countries. Urban buses, delivery vehicles and short-haul trucks are ready for early HD ZEV adoption, and can reach 100% sales by 2030 in ZEVTC countries. Effective national policies are needed to hasten uptake of HD ZEVs. Governments should set clear and legally binding HD ZEV sales targets that meet climate goals, and encourage greater ambition in vehicle segments with more advanced ZEV markets. HD ZEV sales of 45% by 2030 and 100% by 2040 would meet the Paris Agreement’s goals. Regulations should spur the uptake of zero-emission technology, requiring that manufacturers increase their production of HD ZEVs annually. Fiscal incentives such as purchase subsidies and tax deductions can lessen ownership costs and should be designed to close the gaps in costs among vehicle segments, while being regularly reviewed to match technological innovations and changes in costs. Governments can lead the development of infrastructure, ensuring that electrification targets are met, and should incentivize investment by the private sector while steering public sector investment to where it is most needed. Fleet purchase requirements can further spur the supply of HD ZEVs, and should be applied to public and private fleets of buses and trucks.

Language

  • English

Media Info

  • Media Type: Digital/other
  • Edition: Briefing Paper
  • Features: Appendices; Figures; Glossary; References; Tables;
  • Pagination: 24p

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01853284
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Jul 27 2022 9:36AM