Estimating Vehicle Ownership and Use in Beijing Before the License-Plate Lottery

Developing countries with fast-growing economies have experienced rapidly increasing vehicle ownership, rates of utilization similar to those of developed countries, and worrisome levels of pollution from private transportation. This is especially true in large metropolitan areas in China, where a significant percentage of the population can now afford to own a private vehicle and to use it to satisfy household mobility needs. For this study, the authors proposed an econometric approach to jointly model private car ownership and use patterns, and estimated greenhouse gas emissions based on data collected in Beijing prior to the implementation of the license-plate lottery policy. The authors' analysis derived major market indicators; the elasticity of demand for cars with respect to income was estimated to be 0.48, while the elasticity of vehicle kilometers traveled (VKT) to fuel price was −0.17. Among the effects considered, it was found that family income and the ownership of a transit pass significantly affect vehicle ownership, increasing fuel costs reduce VKT, and the density of bus and metro stops has a small influence on both vehicle ownership and use.

• Record URL:
  • https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)UP.1943-5444.0000842
• Availability:
  • Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/07339488
• Supplemental Notes:
  • © 2022 American Society of Civil Engineers.
• Authors:
  • Liu, Yan
  • Wu, Jingxian
  • Cirillo, Cinzia
• Publication Date: 2022-9

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Web
• Features: References;
• Pagination: 04022027
• Serial:
  • Journal of Urban Planning and Development
  • Volume: 148
  • Issue Number: 3
  • Publisher: American Society of Civil Engineers
  • ISSN: 0733-9488
  • EISSN: 1943-5444
  • Serial URL: http://ascelibrary.org/journal/jupddm

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Automobile ownership; Automobile travel; Developing countries; Econometrics; Greenhouse gases; Income; License plates; Policy; Transit passes
• Geographic Terms: Beijing (China)
• Subject Areas: Economics; Highways; Planning and Forecasting; Policy;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01845005
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS, ASCE
• Created Date: May 10 2022 2:35PM