A Multiperiod Model for Assessing the Socioeconomic Impacts of Oil Spills during Arctic Shipping
This article reports on the development of a multiperiod model that can be used to assess the socioeconomic impacts of oil spills that occur during shipping in the Arctic. The authors introduce the issue by noting that as shipping activities in the Arctic have increased, there is no concomitant development of infrastructure along the northwest passage that could assist with an response efforts in the case of an oil spill. The authors developed a decision-making tool to assess the potential risk of pollutants arising from increased shipping activity in this area. They present the consequences of risk using a multiperiod model while the likelihood is analyzed using Bayesian Network. The authors then use the data from their multiperiod model to create an influence diagram for risk assessment purposes. The model development included answers to a series of questionnaires from a crew aboard a research ship passing through the northwest passage, as well as from marine insurance companies, government representatives, and other Arctic specialized professionals. They authors report the data found using this risk-based model as it applies to the Canadian Arctic area. The authors conclude with a brief discussion of how oil spill impacts have been handled in other regions with a similar lack of clean-up infrastructure. Appended to the article are two brief questionnaires: the one used for the qualitative interview and the list of questions from the quantitative interview.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/02724332
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Authors:
- Afenyo, Mawuli
- Ng, Adolf K.Y.
- Jiang, Changmin
- Publication Date: 2022
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Web
- Features: Appendices; Figures; Maps; References; Tables;
- Pagination: pp 614-633
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Serial:
- Risk Analysis
- Volume: 42
- Issue Number: 3
- Publisher: Society for Risk Analysis
- ISSN: 0272-4332
- Serial URL: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1111/(ISSN)1539-6924
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Infrastructure; Ocean shipping; Oil spill cleanup; Socioeconomic factors
- Geographic Terms: Arctic Regions; Northwest Passage
- Subject Areas: Environment; Freight Transportation; Marine Transportation; Safety and Human Factors;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01848988
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Jun 21 2022 10:31AM