The CO₂ standards required for trucks and buses for Europe to meet its climate targets

In 2022 the European Commission (EC) will review its carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission standards for heavy duty vehicles (HDVs). The current standards require new trucks to reduce emissions by 15% in 2025, and 30% in 2030. But increased HDV activity has counteracted the standards' CO₂ benefits, and under the current policies emissions would increase by 8% by 2050. The authors estimate the degree of stringency needed for CO₂ emission standards to bring the HDV sector into line with the European Climate Law (ECL). The authors show that the HDV sector must achieve a 98% reduction in emissions to contribute fairly towards the European Union’s goal of climate neutrality by 2050. To bring the transportation sector into line with the ECL, the EC, through the Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy, introduced a set of stages for deployment of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). The authors find that the specific stages for HDVs, by achieving only 78% reduction between 2019 and 2050, fall short of the 98% emission reduction required for ECL compliance. The ZEV situation has seen dramatic change since the CO₂ standard was implemented. All of the largest manufacturers of HDVs have committed towards increasing the number of ZEVs. If achieved, and bolstered by improvements in vehicle efficiency, these commitments would induce an emission reduction of 96% by 2050, almost in line with the ECL goal. But to guarantee such reductions, it will probably be necessary to ensure the manufacturers' commitments by regulation. To achieve the EU’s climate goals the EC should set the HDV CO₂ standard to a reduction of at least 60% in 2030 with a target of at least 90% for 2035, and set a date of no later than 2040 for the phasing out of gasoline trucks and buses. The standards should be extended to cover all sales of HDVs, as inclusion of HDVs required to report CO₂ emission for their certification would raise compliance with the standards from 65% to nearly 75% of annual sales.

• Record URL:
  • https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/hdv-co2standards-recs-wp-mar22.pdf
• 
• Summary URL:
  • https://theicct.org/publication/hdv-co2standards-recs-mar22/
• Summary URL:
  • https://theicct.org/publication/fs-hdv-co2standards-recs-mar22/
• Corporate Authors:

  European Climate Foundation

  Brussels,   Belgium 

  International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)

  1500 K Street NW, Suite 650
  Washington, DC  United States  20005
• Authors:
  • Mulholland, Eamonn
  • Miller, Joshua
  • Braun, Caleb
  • Sen, Arijit
  • Ragon, Pierre-Louis
  • Rodríguez, Felipe
• Publication Date: 2022-3

Language

• English

Media Info

• Media Type: Digital/other
• Edition: White Paper
• Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
• Pagination: 34p

Subject/Index Terms

• TRT Terms: Carbon dioxide; Exhaust gases; Greenhouse gases; Heavy duty vehicles; Standards
• Geographic Terms: European Union
• Subject Areas: Environment; Highways; Vehicles and Equipment;

Filing Info

• Accession Number: 01851157
• Record Type: Publication
• Files: TRIS
• Created Date: Jul 11 2022 9:21AM