Opportunities and Risks for a National Low-Carbon Fuel Standard
The authors consider the probable effects on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a national low-carbon fuel standard (LCFS) in the United States. Using several scenarios for 2020 through 2035, the authors assess future transportation fuels mix and GHG reductions. The 9 scenarios include 3 targets for GHG reduction, 3 assessments of indirect impacts of land-use change (ILUC), and 3 safeguards to cap certain fuels. A national LCFS would increase demand for food-based biofuels and waste oils, and without restrictions on food-based biofuel usage, the consumption of food-based biofuels would increase by up to 220% of 2020 levels. But a national LCFS could also lead to an increase in fraudulent imports of waste oils, which could increase GHG emissions of the average fuel mix by up to 5% and reduce GHG savings from the LCFS by up to 4%. Uncertainty in the accounting of ILUC emissions from crop-based biofuels could also undermine GHG savings from an LCFS. In an assessment of the possible effect of higher ILUC emissions on the mix of fuels in a scenario with a high reduction target, the average carbon intensity of fuels would be 10.1 gCO₂e/MJ higher, reducing GHG savings by over 40%. Introducing separate caps on food-based biofuels and waste oils would result in a lower target for GHG reduction, but achieve those GHG reductions better than the technology-neutral scenario. Implementing dual caps would be more effective in the development of a sustainable cellulose-based biofuel industry. Without these safeguards, there is a high risk that a national LCFS would not achieve large GHG reductions nor help the biofuel industries crucial to decarbonizing transportation in the United States.
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Corporate Authors:
International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
1500 K Street NW, Suite 650
Washington, DC United States 20005GAMS Development Corporation
Fairfax, VA United StatesDavid and Lucile Packard Foundation
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Authors:
- Pavlenko, Nikita
- Searle, Stephanie
- Christensen, Adam
- Publication Date: 2022-3
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Digital/other
- Edition: White Paper
- Features: Appendices; Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 46p
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Biomass fuels; Environmental risk assessment; Forecasting; Fuel composition; Greenhouse gases; Standards
- Identifier Terms: Low Carbon Fuel Standard
- Geographic Terms: United States
- Subject Areas: Energy; Environment; Transportation (General);
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01851156
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Jul 11 2022 9:21AM