Reflecting the uncertainties of ensemble weather forecasts on the predictions of ship fuel consumption

This work investigates different methodologies for the prediction of uncertainties related to ship fuel consumption along a specific route. Ensemble weather forecasts are adopted to estimate the uncertainties associated with the environmental conditions the ship is asked to face. A brute-force approach, consisting in repeating the fuel consumption predictions for each member of the ensemble, is compared with probabilistic approaches in which the wave parameters are modelled according to truncated-normal and lognormal distributions, as well as with a more classical first-order second-moment method. Finally, the results obtained by the different approaches for the North Atlantic passage of a containership are compared, showing reasonable agreement, with the actual fuel consumption falling within the 90% prediction range for all methods.

Language

  • English

Media Info

Subject/Index Terms

Filing Info

  • Accession Number: 01840270
  • Record Type: Publication
  • Files: TRIS
  • Created Date: Mar 25 2022 12:36PM