Reflecting the uncertainties of ensemble weather forecasts on the predictions of ship fuel consumption
This work investigates different methodologies for the prediction of uncertainties related to ship fuel consumption along a specific route. Ensemble weather forecasts are adopted to estimate the uncertainties associated with the environmental conditions the ship is asked to face. A brute-force approach, consisting in repeating the fuel consumption predictions for each member of the ensemble, is compared with probabilistic approaches in which the wave parameters are modelled according to truncated-normal and lognormal distributions, as well as with a more classical first-order second-moment method. Finally, the results obtained by the different approaches for the North Atlantic passage of a containership are compared, showing reasonable agreement, with the actual fuel consumption falling within the 90% prediction range for all methods.
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Availability:
- Find a library where document is available. Order URL: http://worldcat.org/issn/00298018
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Supplemental Notes:
- © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Abstract reprinted with permission of Elsevier.
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Authors:
- Vettor, R
- Soares, C Guedes
- Publication Date: 2022-4-15
Language
- English
Media Info
- Media Type: Web
- Features: Figures; References; Tables;
- Pagination: 111009
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Serial:
- Ocean Engineering
- Volume: 250
- Issue Number: 0
- Publisher: Pergamon
- ISSN: 0029-8018
- EISSN: 1873-5258
- Serial URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/journal/00298018
Subject/Index Terms
- TRT Terms: Containerships; Fuel consumption; Mathematical prediction; Uncertainty; Weather forecasting
- Subject Areas: Energy; Marine Transportation; Planning and Forecasting; Vehicles and Equipment;
Filing Info
- Accession Number: 01840270
- Record Type: Publication
- Files: TRIS
- Created Date: Mar 25 2022 12:36PM